tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 4301 at 06:00, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4301 American flown by Envoy Flight history → VPS 06:00 MIA 08:46 10% 4% 1.2% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 5h 02m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:18 → MSP 17:12DL 2462 1h 41m Minneapolis MSP 18:53 → MIA 23:35DL 2187 8h 17m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → MIA 15:21DL 1323 5h 00m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588 6h 14m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35DL 2048 1h 15m Atlanta ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386 4h 40m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560 1h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:20 → MIA 14:29AA 1454 6h 59m 93% 74%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:42 → CLT 10:14AA 2185 3h 20m Charlotte CLT 13:34 → MIA 15:41AA 1198 6h 59m 97% 74%
AmericanDetails → VPS 15:33 → DFW 17:50AA 2501 2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:22 → MIA 00:18 +1AA 2090 7h 45m 94% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → VPS 15:33 → DFW 17:50AA 2501 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:43 → MIA 22:41AA 2050 6h 08m 74% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON