tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 10:53 → ORD 12:05DL 2894 6h 05m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 13:02 → ORD 14:14DL 1477 7h 14m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35DL 2048 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738 5h 57m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:09 → DFW 09:23AA 2560 3h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:41 → ORD 15:13AA 1618 8h 04m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:44 → CLT 10:16AA 2185 2h 42m Charlotte CLT 12:58 → ORD 14:09AA 2530 6h 25m 95% 79%
AmericanDetails → VPS 15:59 → DFW 18:14AA 2501 2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:30 → ORD 23:02AA 3790 · flown by Envoy 7h 03m 93% 78%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:18 → MSP 17:12DL 2462 3h 03m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → ORD 21:52DL 1563 7h 34m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 19:13 → ORD 20:24DL 1139 5h 39m 98% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON