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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching St Louis on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 12:41 → STL 13:30DL 1102 6h 30m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → STL 10:49DL 1400 4h 49m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35DL 2048 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 15:45 → STL 16:33DL 543 5h 18m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 20:34 → STL 21:22DL 2833 6h 37m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:44 → CLT 10:16AA 2185 3h 29m Charlotte CLT 13:45 → STL 14:47AA 3060 7h 03m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:09 → DFW 09:23AA 2560 3h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:49 → STL 14:42AA 1363 7h 33m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → VPS 15:59 → DFW 18:14AA 2501 3h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:47 → STL 23:43AA 1445 7h 44m 97% 71%
AmericanDetails → VPS 12:18 → DFW 14:35AA 2460 3h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:59 → STL 19:56AA 2487 7h 38m 98% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON