Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 1095 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 7–17%.

Safest bet that day UA 1095 IAD 06:30 → SFO 09:12 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 7 DCA 18:59 → SFO 21:56 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1095 United Flight history →	IAD 06:30	SFO 09:12	6%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 796 United Flight history →	IAD 16:09	SFO 19:05	7%	2%	0.6%	84%
UA 369 United Flight history →	DCA 07:55	SFO 10:50	7%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 2862 United Flight history →	IAD 14:51	SFO 17:38	7%	3%	0.5%	82%
UA 1773 United	IAD 09:32	SFO 12:05	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1147 United Flight history →	IAD 08:35	SFO 11:19	8%	2%	0.6%	86%
UA 2192 United Flight history →	BWI 08:00	SFO 10:49	9%	2%	0.6%	94%
WN 122 Southwest	BWI 08:55	SFO 11:35	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1434 United Flight history →	IAD 12:40	SFO 15:27	10%	3%	0.5%	79%
WN 4375 Southwest	BWI 15:58	SJC 18:40	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2166 United	DCA 18:00	SFO 21:07	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2832 United	IAD 18:29	SFO 21:18	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1757 United Flight history →	IAD 17:55	SFO 20:37	14%	3%	0.6%	60%
AS 7 Alaska Flight history →	DCA 18:59	SFO 21:56	17%	4%	0.7%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	1h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 09:24 → SFO 11:32DL 2078	8h 12m	98%	90%
United Details →	DCA 06:30 → ORD 07:46UA 1793	1h 30m Chicago	ORD 09:16 → SJC 11:46UA 307	8h 16m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	7h 31m	93%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON