Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 27 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 1124 at 06:42 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 1124 BWI 06:42 → DAL 08:40 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2669 BWI 15:48 → DFW 17:57 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1124 Southwest	BWI 06:42	DAL 08:40	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
AA 1839 American Flight history →	DCA 06:59	DFW 09:25	4%	2%	0.6%	90%
WN 864 Southwest	BWI 09:42	DAL 11:37	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4059 Southwest	DCA 07:19	DAL 09:14	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 2617 American Flight history →	IAD 06:14	DFW 08:35	6%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 1978 American Flight history →	DCA 07:59	DFW 10:31	6%	3%	0.6%	84%
AA 2007 American Flight history →	DCA 04:57	DFW 07:05	6%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 1403 American Flight history →	BWI 07:30	DFW 09:55	6%	3%	0.6%	85%
WN 928 Southwest	BWI 11:42	DAL 13:31	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 124 Southwest	DCA 10:43	DAL 12:39	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1564 United Flight history →	IAD 12:41	DFW 15:05	8%	3%	0.5%	79%
WN 4815 Southwest	BWI 15:15	DAL 17:12	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 795 American Flight history →	DCA 09:59	DFW 12:09	9%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 1624 American Flight history →	DCA 15:13	DFW 17:44	9%	3%	0.6%	82%
WN 133 Southwest	BWI 18:10	DAL 20:07	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1623 American Flight history →	DCA 12:02	DFW 14:26	9%	4%	0.6%	76%
AA 1177 American Flight history →	DCA 13:44	DFW 16:11	9%	3%	0.6%	78%
AA 1414 American Flight history →	DCA 17:11	DFW 19:41	9%	4%	0.7%	65%
AA 1158 American Flight history →	DCA 18:55	DFW 21:20	11%	5%	0.7%	61%
AA 524 American Flight history →	IAD 16:50	DFW 18:57	12%	3%	0.6%	83%
WN 1524 Southwest	DCA 14:29	DAL 16:23	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2116 United Flight history →	IAD 18:00	DFW 20:25	13%	3%	0.5%	72%
WN 3680 Southwest	DCA 17:34	DAL 19:25	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
F9 1475 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 12:34	DFW 14:47	13%	5%	0.7%	68%
WN 2209 Southwest	DCA 20:10	DAL 22:06	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 4559 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 16:26	DFW 18:39	14%	5%	0.7%	70%
AA 2669 American	BWI 15:48	DFW 17:57	15%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON