tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 42 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 5802 at 06:07 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 5802 DCA 06:07 → JFK 07:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 1831 IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:10 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time
Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.
DL 5802 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 06:07 JFK 07:30 3% 1% 0.7% 93%
AA 4551 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 06:30 JFK 07:57 4% 1% 0.7% 94%
YX 5843 Republic DCA 06:12 LGA 07:36 4% 2% 0.7% no record
AA 4403 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 07:11 LGA 08:39 6% 2% 0.7% 90%
B6 254 JetBlue Flight history → DCA 06:21 JFK 07:30 7% 1% 0.7% 91%
UA 1998 United IAD 06:39 EWR 08:09 7% 2% 0.6% no record
DL 5699 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 11:17 JFK 12:38 9% 2% 0.6% 94%
AA 4522 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 13:44 JFK 15:10 10% 2% 0.7% 72%
AA 4629 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 18:29 JFK 20:07 10% 3% 0.7% 71%
UA 2396 United Flight history → IAD 08:29 EWR 09:55 11% 2% 0.6% 89%
AA 4719 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 22:37 LGA 00:00 11% 5% 0.8% 67%
YX 4366 Republic DCA 10:04 LGA 11:34 11% 3% 0.7% no record
YX 5853 Republic DCA 16:57 JFK 18:23 12% 3% 0.7% no record
UA 1997 United Flight history → IAD 22:29 EWR 23:59 14% 3% 0.7% 78%
YX 5809 Republic IAD 12:42 JFK 14:09 14% 3% 0.6% no record
YX 3699 Republic IAD 12:44 LGA 14:09 15% 4% 0.6% no record
YX 4546 Republic DCA 11:19 LGA 12:45 15% 5% 0.7% no record
DL 5772 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 08:15 LGA 09:33 15% 3% 0.7% 81%
YX 4636 Republic DCA 17:35 LGA 18:59 18% 8% 0.7% no record
YX 5779 Republic IAD 18:50 JFK 20:12 18% 4% 0.6% no record
UA 1498 United Flight history → IAD 12:35 EWR 14:02 18% 5% 0.7% 69%
AA 4730 American flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 13:59 LGA 15:31 19% 8% 0.8% 62%
YX 4569 Republic DCA 15:39 LGA 17:01 19% 6% 0.7% no record
DL 5742 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 11:00 LGA 12:09 20% 5% 0.8% 75%
DL 5747 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 13:30 LGA 14:53 22% 7% 0.8% 67%
DL 5763 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 17:40 LGA 18:59 22% 10% 0.8% 51%
DL 5768 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 20:40 LGA 21:59 24% 9% 0.8% 54%
YX 4583 Republic DCA 18:49 LGA 20:08 24% 8% 0.7% no record
DL 5752 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → DCA 19:40 LGA 21:04 25% 10% 0.8% 48%
UA 1831 United Flight history → IAD 17:42 EWR 19:10 30% 5% 0.6% 59%
UA 4167 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 06:00 EWR 07:19 7% 4% 2.2% 93%
UA 4184 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 10:07 EWR 11:29 13% 12% 5.6% 87%
UA 4508 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 11:00 EWR 12:22 14% 11% 6.7% 86%
UA 4430 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 08:30 EWR 09:52 16% 5% 2.2% 84%
UA 6116 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAD 08:19 LGA 09:48 18% 6% 2.9% 82%
UA 4077 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAD 17:15 LGA 18:42 23% 13% 13.9% 77%
UA 4442 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 13:00 EWR 14:22 33% 18% 4.6% 67%
DL 5076 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record IAD 19:14 JFK 21:00 36% 22% 12.7% 64%
UA 4560 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 15:10 EWR 16:30 36% 21% 8.3% 64%
UA 4180 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 17:55 EWR 19:28 43% 24% 11.4% 57%
UA 4401 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 16:30 EWR 18:03 44% 23% 5.4% 56%
UA 4174 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record DCA 20:25 EWR 21:58 47% 28% 11.8% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON