Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 34 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 1178 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 1178 DCA 05:00 → MIA 07:56 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 2959 IAD 17:40 → FLL 20:23 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1178 American Flight history →	DCA 05:00	MIA 07:56	2%	2%	0.6%	93%
AA 1183 American Flight history →	BWI 06:00	MIA 08:46	5%	3%	0.6%	87%
AA 2344 American Flight history →	DCA 04:57	MIA 07:38	5%	2%	0.6%	96%
B6 379 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 06:00	FLL 08:32	6%	2%	0.7%	77%
WN 180 Southwest	BWI 08:12	MIA 11:02	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1073 United Flight history →	IAD 08:45	MIA 11:35	6%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 1399 Delta	BWI 09:51	MIA 12:49	7%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 401 American Flight history →	DCA 09:52	MIA 13:10	7%	2%	0.7%	93%
WN 942 Southwest	BWI 08:32	FLL 11:23	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1825 United Flight history →	IAD 08:20	FLL 11:07	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
WN 1653 Southwest	BWI 11:02	MIA 14:03	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1893 American Flight history →	DCA 08:02	FLL 10:58	9%	2%	0.7%	89%
AA 422 American Flight history →	DCA 08:20	MIA 11:17	9%	3%	0.7%	84%
B6 579 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 07:59	FLL 10:40	9%	2%	0.7%	81%
WN 1193 Southwest	BWI 12:57	FLL 15:41	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1627 American Flight history →	DCA 11:55	MIA 14:38	14%	4%	0.8%	76%
WN 1500 Southwest Flight history →	BWI 15:23	FLL 18:01	15%	3%	0.8%	88%
B6 2995 JetBlue Flight history →	BWI 08:00	FLL 10:41	15%	3%	0.7%	80%
WN 946 Southwest	BWI 17:16	FLL 19:57	16%	4%	0.8%	no record
B6 2595 JetBlue Flight history →	BWI 16:00	FLL 18:41	16%	8%	0.9%	57%
DL 2196 Delta	IAD 18:11	FLL 20:56	19%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 1612 American Flight history →	DCA 13:59	MIA 16:49	21%	8%	1.0%	62%
AA 2214 American	DCA 20:52	MIA 23:38	21%	9%	1.2%	no record
WN 2923 Southwest	DCA 14:49	FLL 17:29	21%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 1010 American	BWI 13:54	MIA 16:47	22%	8%	0.9%	no record
B6 1579 JetBlue Flight history →	DCA 16:36	FLL 19:28	22%	8%	1.2%	61%
AA 973 American	DCA 17:48	MIA 20:41	24%	11%	1.2%	no record
MQ 4219 Envoy	BWI 17:10	MIA 20:02	24%	9%	0.9%	no record
AA 1299 American	DCA 14:53	MIA 17:36	24%	9%	1.2%	no record
WN 1002 Southwest	BWI 17:22	MIA 19:59	24%	8%	1.0%	no record
F9 4411 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 15:14	FLL 17:55	25%	6%	2.1%	59%
DL 2576 Delta Flight history →	DCA 14:43	MIA 17:33	25%	10%	1.2%	67%
AA 582 American	DCA 19:02	MIA 21:36	27%	13%	1.3%	no record
F9 2959 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 17:40	FLL 20:23	37%	9%	1.3%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON