Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 14 nonstops are 5–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3068 XNA 08:51 → ATL 11:53 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5275 XNA 17:47 → ATL 20:46 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3068 Delta	XNA 08:51	ATL 11:53	5%	3%	0.2%	no record
DL 1923 Delta	XNA 08:33	ATL 11:30	6%	3%	0.2%	no record
DL 5339 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	XNA 09:39	ATL 12:38	6%	3%	0.8%	83%
DL 1007 Delta	XNA 07:22	ATL 10:19	7%	3%	0.2%	no record
OO 3795 SkyWest	XNA 05:55	ATL 09:04	9%	6%	0.3%	no record
OO 3709 SkyWest	XNA 12:05	ATL 15:14	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 1305 Delta	XNA 18:59	ATL 22:02	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 3753 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 06:07	ATL 09:16	10%	5%	0.3%	92%
DL 5497 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	XNA 07:23	ATL 10:20	10%	4%	0.4%	87%
DL 2771 Delta Flight history →	XNA 18:56	ATL 22:00	11%	3%	0.7%	63%
OO 3739 SkyWest	XNA 15:21	ATL 18:30	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3785 SkyWest	XNA 15:19	ATL 18:22	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
9E 5037 Endeavor	XNA 17:42	ATL 20:41	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 5275 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	XNA 17:47	ATL 20:46	15%	3%	0.8%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON