Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3871 XNA 08:51 → CLT 12:12 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 5327 XNA 14:48 → CLT 18:01 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3871 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 08:51	CLT 12:12	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
OH 5197 PSA	XNA 06:01	CLT 09:32	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3355 Envoy	XNA 06:19	CLT 09:25	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 5446 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 12:45	CLT 15:58	12%	3%	0.7%	81%
AA 5233 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 17:27	CLT 20:38	13%	3%	0.7%	84%
AA 5327 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 14:48	CLT 18:01	15%	3%	0.7%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON