Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, AA 3824 at 07:00, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 3824 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 07:00	DCA 10:39	9%	2%	0.6%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	XNA 07:29 → ORD 09:26UA 4612 · flown by GoJet	1h 49m Chicago	ORD 11:15 → DCA 14:22UA 2668	5h 53m	100%	89%
American Details →	XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12AA 4088 · flown by Envoy	2h 24m Chicago	ORD 09:36 → DCA 12:41AA 315	6h 35m	97%	87%
American Details →	XNA 06:23 → DFW 07:49AA 1700	2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:23 → DCA 14:20AA 1550	6h 57m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	XNA 09:38 → ATL 12:36DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 15:35 → DCA 17:30DL 850	6h 52m	99%	84%
American Details →	XNA 07:13 → DFW 08:45AA 3985 · flown by Envoy	3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414	7h 46m	98%	82%
American Details →	XNA 10:35 → ORD 12:30AA 3595 · flown by Envoy	2h 24m Chicago	ORD 14:54 → DCA 17:59AA 2769	6h 24m	100%	82%
American Details →	XNA 07:46 → ORD 09:38AA 3933 · flown by Envoy	3h 37m Chicago	ORD 13:15 → DCA 16:19AA 789	7h 33m	100%	82%
American Details →	XNA 08:51 → CLT 12:12AA 3871 · flown by Envoy	2h 22m Charlotte	CLT 14:34 → DCA 16:13AA 2839	6h 22m	99%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	XNA 12:08 → LGA 16:08DL 5482 · flown by Endeavor	1h 07m New York	LGA 17:15 → DCA 18:59DL 5717 · flown by Republic	5h 51m	74%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON