Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5812 XNA 13:28 → DEN 14:48 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 5694 XNA 17:06 → DEN 18:22 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5812 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 13:28	DEN 14:48	6%	3%	0.5%	92%
OO 5326 SkyWest	XNA 05:44	DEN 06:44	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2383 United	XNA 08:57	DEN 09:51	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 1091 Frontier Flight history →	XNA 19:17	DEN 20:26	11%	4%	0.7%	86%
UA 5694 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 17:06	DEN 18:22	14%	5%	0.5%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON