Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 10 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 3603 XNA 10:24 → DFW 11:44 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3840 XNA 16:04 → DFW 17:23 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3603 Envoy	XNA 10:24	DFW 11:44	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
MQ 4111 Envoy	XNA 09:13	DFW 10:35	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 3803 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 14:56	DFW 16:16	9%	3%	0.7%	85%
MQ 9868 Envoy	XNA 19:22	DFW 20:44	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4135 Envoy	XNA 14:09	DFW 15:31	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 3985 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 07:13	DFW 08:45	10%	3%	0.7%	75%
AA 2025 American	XNA 11:47	DFW 13:08	11%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1700 American Flight history →	XNA 07:45	DFW 09:09	11%	4%	0.7%	82%
AA 3583 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 18:25	DFW 19:43	13%	3%	0.7%	82%
AA 3840 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 16:04	DFW 17:23	13%	3%	0.7%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON