Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 4895 at 17:21, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 4895 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	XNA 17:21	DTW 20:32	12%	3%	0.8%	76%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	XNA 07:47 → ORD 09:39AA 3933 · flown by Envoy	3h 55m Chicago	ORD 13:34 → DTW 15:54AA 3980 · flown by Envoy	7h 07m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	XNA 07:24 → ATL 10:22DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031	7h 18m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	XNA 09:38 → ATL 12:37DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005	6h 49m	99%	87%
American Details →	XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12AA 4088 · flown by Envoy	3h 14m Chicago	ORD 10:26 → DTW 12:45AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	6h 39m	97%	83%
United Details →	XNA 07:29 → ORD 09:27UA 4612 · flown by GoJet	1h 23m Chicago	ORD 10:50 → DTW 13:27UA 5756 · flown by SkyWest	4h 58m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	XNA 06:07 → ATL 09:16DL 3753 · flown by SkyWest	1h 44m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	5h 49m	94%	82%
American Details →	XNA 09:28 → CLT 12:34AA 3871 · flown by Envoy	3h 49m Charlotte	CLT 16:23 → DTW 18:09AA 1443	7h 41m	100%	82%
American Details →	XNA 06:25 → DFW 07:50AA 1700	3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:20 → DTW 15:03AA 679	7h 38m	100%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	XNA 12:08 → LGA 16:09DL 5482 · flown by Endeavor	51m New York	LGA 17:00 → DTW 19:39DL 999	6h 31m	62%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON