Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4591 XNA 09:08 → LGA 13:24 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 4472 XNA 15:10 → LGA 19:26 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4591 American flown by Republic Flight history →	XNA 09:08	LGA 13:24	9%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 4472 American flown by Republic Flight history →	XNA 15:10	LGA 19:26	15%	4%	0.7%	68%
DL 5482 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	XNA 11:12	LGA 15:14	21%	9%	3.8%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON