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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via O'Hare, leaving 07:29, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → XNA 07:29 → ORD 09:27UA 4612 · flown by GoJet 1h 30m Chicago ORD 10:57 → MIA 15:19UA 1620 6h 50m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → XNA 06:07 → ATL 09:16DL 3753 · flown by SkyWest 1h 44m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 5h 55m 92% 82%
AmericanDetails → XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12AA 4088 · flown by Envoy 2h 50m Chicago ORD 10:02 → MIA 14:12AA 2689 8h 06m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → XNA 07:24 → ATL 10:22DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 13:23 → MIA 15:19DL 1323 6h 55m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → XNA 06:25 → DFW 07:51AA 1700 2h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:21 → MIA 14:20AA 656 6h 55m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → XNA 06:13 → PHL 10:07AA 5551 · flown by PSA 1h 21m Philadelphia PHL 11:28 → MIA 14:17AA 1989 7h 04m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → XNA 09:38 → ATL 12:37DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386 6h 17m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → XNA 07:00 → DCA 10:39AA 3824 · flown by Envoy 1h 16m Washington DCA 11:55 → MIA 14:38AA 1627 6h 38m 97% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON