tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3751 SkyWest XNA 17:10 MSP 19:24 10% 4% 0.5% no record
OO 3761 SkyWest XNA 11:41 MSP 13:44 12% 5% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → XNA 06:08 → ATL 09:17DL 3753 · flown by SkyWest 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901 7h 42m 97% 87%
AmericanDetails → XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12AA 4088 · flown by Envoy 1h 03m Chicago ORD 08:15 → MSP 10:01AA 4162 · flown by Envoy 4h 55m 91% 84%
UnitedDetails → XNA 13:28 → DEN 14:48UA 5812 · flown by SkyWest 3h 17m Denver DEN 18:05 → MSP 21:10UA 2076 7h 42m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → XNA 17:06 → DEN 18:22UA 5694 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m Denver DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667 6h 53m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → XNA 07:45 → DFW 09:09AA 1700 2h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:01 → MSP 14:23AA 1668 6h 38m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → XNA 09:39 → ATL 12:34DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825 6h 27m 94% 82%
AmericanDetails → XNA 07:07 → ORD 09:06AA 3933 · flown by Envoy 2h 47m Chicago ORD 11:53 → MSP 13:32AA 2448 6h 25m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → XNA 14:56 → DFW 16:16AA 3803 · flown by Envoy 2h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:51 → MSP 21:21AA 2806 6h 25m 98% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → XNA 17:12 → IAH 19:05UA 6290 · flown by Mesa 46m Houston IAH 19:51 → MSP 22:59UA 1872 5h 47m 72% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON