Today: AA 4088 at 05:06 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–23%.

Safest bet today AA 4088 XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 3846 XNA 17:43 → ORD 19:34 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4088 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 05:06	ORD 07:12	11%	3%	0.2%	86%
AA 3595 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 10:36	ORD 12:31	11%	3%	0.2%	90%
G7 4435 GoJet	XNA 11:17	ORD 13:16	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 4612 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	XNA 07:29	ORD 09:27	15%	3%	0.6%	81%
MQ 3470 Envoy	XNA 14:03	ORD 15:55	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 3933 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 07:47	ORD 09:39	18%	4%	0.2%	84%
G7 4470 GoJet	XNA 14:50	ORD 16:47	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3660 Envoy	XNA 19:26	ORD 21:19	20%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 4411 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	XNA 18:21	ORD 20:18	22%	5%	1.0%	62%
AA 3846 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 17:43	ORD 19:34	23%	6%	0.7%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON