Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 5551 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 06:14	PHL 10:12	8%	4%	1.0%	86%
AA 5543 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 13:01	PHL 16:50	17%	5%	0.7%	63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	XNA 06:07 → ATL 09:16DL 3753 · flown by SkyWest	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 12:42 → PHL 14:46DL 2956	7h 39m	97%	88%
United Details →	XNA 07:30 → ORD 09:28UA 4612 · flown by GoJet	2h 05m Chicago	ORD 11:33 → PHL 14:47UA 2182	6h 17m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	XNA 07:23 → ATL 10:20DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 13:00 → PHL 15:02DL 2131	6h 39m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	XNA 09:39 → ATL 12:38DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692	5h 25m	97%	85%
United Details →	XNA 13:28 → DEN 14:48UA 5812 · flown by SkyWest	3h 06m Denver	DEN 17:54 → PHL 23:30UA 1510	9h 02m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	XNA 17:22 → DTW 20:33DL 4895 · flown by Endeavor	1h 02m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → PHL 23:16DL 2402	4h 54m	88%	81%
Delta Details →	XNA 17:47 → ATL 20:46DL 5275 · flown by Endeavor	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	6h 12m	90%	79%
American Details →	XNA 14:53 → CLT 18:07AA 5327 · flown by PSA	3h 45m Charlotte	CLT 21:52 → PHL 23:44AA 1827	7h 51m	100%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON