Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 3620 at 18:19, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 3620 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 18:19	SLC 20:09	6%	3%	0.5%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	XNA 17:06 → DEN 18:22UA 5694 · flown by SkyWest	2h 43m Denver	DEN 21:05 → SLC 22:44UA 5646 · flown by SkyWest	6h 38m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	XNA 09:38 → ATL 12:36DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	8h 40m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	XNA 06:06 → ATL 09:15DL 3753 · flown by SkyWest	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	8h 44m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	XNA 07:23 → ATL 10:20DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423	9h 28m	97%	86%
American Details →	XNA 07:46 → ORD 09:38AA 3933 · flown by Envoy	2h 13m Chicago	ORD 11:51 → SLC 14:42AA 3258	7h 56m	100%	84%
United Details →	XNA 07:29 → ORD 09:26UA 4612 · flown by GoJet	3h 19m Chicago	ORD 12:45 → SLC 15:22UA 1955	8h 53m	100%	84%
American Details →	XNA 06:23 → DFW 07:48AA 1700	3h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:20 → SLC 13:16AA 1871	7h 53m	100%	83%
American Details →	XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12AA 4088 · flown by Envoy	1h 11m Chicago	ORD 08:23 → SLC 11:14AA 1991	7h 08m	92%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	XNA 08:27 → PHX 09:18AA 4033 · flown by Envoy	46m Phoenix	PHX 10:04 → SLC 12:51AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest	5h 24m	71%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON