Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 2–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4850 ABQ 06:09 → DEN 07:28 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 725 ABQ 16:20 → DEN 17:50 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4850 Southwest	ABQ 06:09	DEN 07:28	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 5988 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 05:38	DEN 07:17	2%	2%	0.6%	96%
UA 621 United Flight history →	ABQ 07:00	DEN 08:23	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
UA 1228 United	ABQ 10:38	DEN 11:58	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 5446 SkyWest	ABQ 18:01	DEN 19:31	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1741 United Flight history →	ABQ 13:33	DEN 15:03	8%	3%	0.6%	85%
WN 509 Southwest	ABQ 13:32	DEN 14:53	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 320 Southwest	ABQ 15:31	DEN 16:49	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 725 United Flight history →	ABQ 16:20	DEN 17:50	12%	3%	0.6%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON