Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1231 at 05:34 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 1231 ABQ 05:34 → DFW 08:25 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 9 ABQ 17:32 → DFW 20:35 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1231 American Flight history →	ABQ 05:34	DFW 08:25	7%	4%	1.0%	88%
AA 99 American Flight history →	ABQ 07:04	DFW 10:00	9%	5%	0.9%	90%
AA 999 American Flight history →	ABQ 08:21	DFW 11:14	9%	5%	1.0%	84%
AA 3535 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ABQ 10:05	DFW 12:59	10%	4%	0.8%	73%
AA 3586 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ABQ 12:19	DFW 15:13	11%	4%	0.8%	84%
AA 3777 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ABQ 14:26	DFW 17:23	14%	5%	0.8%	77%
AA 9 American Flight history →	ABQ 17:32	DFW 20:35	19%	9%	2.0%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON