tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 413 at 06:05, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 413 United ABQ 06:05 IAD 11:52 5% 2% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 2 h ahead of Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ABQ 05:39 → DEN 07:17UA 5988 · flown by SkyWest 3h 03m Denver DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:53UA 2087 8h 14m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 11:20 → ATL 16:30DL 1004 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 18:05 → IAD 19:54DL 1309 6h 34m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 08:30 → MSP 12:04DL 535 2h 26m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest 7h 34m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 07:00 → ATL 12:04DL 1688 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → IAD 16:46DL 1695 7h 46m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → ABQ 05:34 → DFW 08:24AA 1231 1h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:19 → IAD 14:30AA 524 6h 56m 95% 85%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 14:19 → IAH 17:39UA 3986 · flown by Mesa 2h 44m Houston IAH 20:23 → IAD 00:40 +1UA 1968 8h 21m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 11:48 → ORD 15:50UA 1557 3h 50m Chicago ORD 19:40 → IAD 22:30UA 304 8h 42m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 13:33 → DEN 15:03UA 1741 2h 57m Denver DEN 18:00 → IAD 23:32UA 2408 7h 59m 99% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON