Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 4115 ABQ 06:00 → LAX 07:09 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 1371 ABQ 12:04 → LAX 13:06 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4115 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 06:00	LAX 07:09	4%	2%	0.6%	95%
OO 3814 SkyWest	ABQ 12:03	LAX 13:13	8%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 6444 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 07:11	LAX 08:22	9%	2%	0.6%	97%
DL 4091 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 18:48	LAX 19:59	9%	3%	0.7%	87%
OO 4897 SkyWest	ABQ 12:44	LAX 13:51	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1371 Southwest	ABQ 12:04	LAX 13:06	10%	2%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON