Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 2520 at 10:03, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 2520 Southwest	ABQ 10:03	OAK 11:28	5%	1%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 1 h behind Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44DL 4152 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	4h 51m	98%	94%
Delta Details →	ABQ 19:59 → SLC 21:46DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest	1h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	4h 51m	97%	94%
Alaska Details →	ABQ 14:43 → SEA 16:55AS 330	3h 47m Seattle	SEA 20:42 → OAK 22:45AS 706	9h 02m	100%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON