Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2174 ABQ 06:02 → ORD 10:03 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2068 ABQ 13:38 → ORD 17:42 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2174 American	ABQ 06:02	ORD 10:03	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1846 United	ABQ 07:46	ORD 11:45	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1557 United Flight history →	ABQ 11:48	ORD 15:50	10%	4%	0.6%	63%
AA 2068 American	ABQ 13:38	ORD 17:42	15%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON