Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 2760 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–15%.

Safest bet that day AA 2760 ABQ 06:05 → PHX 06:36 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 432 ABQ 18:29 → PHX 18:50 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2760 American	ABQ 06:05	PHX 06:36	4%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 4812 Southwest	ABQ 07:47	PHX 08:07	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 748 Southwest	ABQ 11:39	PHX 11:59	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 1352 American Flight history →	ABQ 11:49	PHX 12:12	11%	5%	0.7%	90%
WN 983 Southwest	ABQ 16:34	PHX 16:54	12%	4%	0.5%	no record
MQ 3879 Envoy	ABQ 15:17	PHX 15:49	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1536 Southwest	ABQ 14:44	PHX 15:03	13%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 432 Southwest	ABQ 18:29	PHX 18:50	15%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON