Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 15 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day 9K 5001 ACK 07:13 → BOS 08:22 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest 9K 5341 ACK 16:54 → BOS 18:04 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9K 5001 Cape Air	ACK 07:13	BOS 08:22	8%	2%	1.2%	no record
9K 5041 Cape Air	ACK 08:19	BOS 09:21	10%	2%	1.2%	no record
9K 5301 Cape Air	ACK 10:14	BOS 11:10	11%	2%	1.2%	no record
9K 5181 Cape Air	ACK 12:31	BOS 13:48	11%	2%	1.2%	no record
9K 5161 Cape Air	ACK 13:21	BOS 14:41	11%	3%	1.2%	no record
9K 5021 Cape Air	ACK 10:30	BOS 11:41	12%	2%	1.2%	no record
9K 5081 Cape Air	ACK 11:21	BOS 12:20	12%	2%	1.2%	no record
9K 5281 Cape Air	ACK 17:03	BOS 19:32	12%	3%	1.2%	no record
9K 5141 Cape Air	ACK 12:13	BOS 13:17	13%	2%	1.2%	no record
B6 1151 JetBlue Flight history →	ACK 15:07	BOS 16:08	14%	6%	0.8%	67%
9K 5061 Cape Air	ACK 15:39	BOS 16:48	14%	3%	1.2%	no record
9K 5381 Cape Air	ACK 18:28	BOS 19:36	14%	4%	1.3%	no record
9K 5361 Cape Air	ACK 20:46	BOS 21:54	14%	3%	1.3%	no record
9K 5261 Cape Air	ACK 16:42	BOS 17:49	15%	3%	1.2%	no record
9K 5341 Cape Air	ACK 16:54	BOS 18:04	16%	4%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON