Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 324 at 13:20, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 324 United	ACV 13:20	LAX 15:11	18%	6%	5.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest	3h 11m San Francisco	SFO 18:33 → LAX 19:58UA 1799	5h 53m	96%	76%
United Details →	ACV 16:10 → SFO 17:57UA 4632 · flown by SkyWest	3h 31m San Francisco	SFO 21:28 → LAX 22:53UA 1079	6h 43m	98%	72%
United Details →	ACV 12:30 → DEN 16:22UA 5966 · flown by SkyWest	1h 06m Denver	DEN 17:28 → LAX 18:52UA 1753	6h 22m	86%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest	57m San Francisco	SFO 16:19 → LAX 17:54UA 8154	3h 49m	59%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON