Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, OO 3015 at 15:16, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OO 3015 SkyWest	ACV 15:16	SEA 17:00	19%	6%	5.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ACV 16:11 → SFO 17:57UA 4632 · flown by SkyWest	2h 48m San Francisco	SFO 20:45 → SEA 23:10UA 1007	6h 59m	97%	79%
United Details →	ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest	3h 21m San Francisco	SFO 18:43 → SEA 20:48UA 1097	6h 43m	96%	69%
United Details →	ACV 12:30 → DEN 16:22UA 5966 · flown by SkyWest	2h 46m Denver	DEN 19:08 → SEA 20:53UA 2767	8h 23m	95%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ACV 16:11 → SFO 17:57UA 4632 · flown by SkyWest	46m San Francisco	SFO 18:43 → SEA 20:48UA 1097	4h 37m	74%	54%
United Details →	ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest	57m San Francisco	SFO 16:19 → SEA 18:24UA 8143	4h 19m	61%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON