Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 27%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: UA 1578 at 06:00, 11%.

Safest bet that day UA 1578 ACV 06:00 → SFO 07:18 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 611 ACV 08:20 → SFO 09:36 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Weather 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1578 United	ACV 06:00	SFO 07:18	11%	8%	6.4%	no record
UA 4632 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ACV 16:11	SFO 17:57	19%	9%	6.8%	17%
UA 4655 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ACV 14:05	SFO 15:22	35%	16%	7.3%	57%
UA 611 United	ACV 08:20	SFO 09:36	42%	14%	6.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON