Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 508 at 06:08 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 4–13%.

Safest bet that day WN 508 ALB 06:08 → BWI 07:35 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4343 ALB 15:09 → BWI 16:29 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 508 Southwest	ALB 06:08	BWI 07:35	2%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1444 Southwest	ALB 08:32	BWI 09:52	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2664 Southwest	ALB 12:18	BWI 13:38	8%	3%	1.0%	no record
WN 4343 Southwest	ALB 15:09	BWI 16:29	13%	4%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON