Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 10–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5433 ALB 05:10 → DCA 06:50 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time Riskiest AA 5501 ALB 18:35 → DCA 20:22 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5433 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ALB 05:10	DCA 06:50	10%	4%	0.9%	65%
OH 5186 PSA	ALB 10:45	DCA 12:28	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
OH 5454 PSA	ALB 15:15	DCA 17:04	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 5501 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ALB 18:35	DCA 20:22	18%	5%	0.9%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON