Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 2225 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 2225 ALB 06:10 → ORD 07:47 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 538 ALB 17:00 → ORD 18:26 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2225 United Flight history →	ALB 06:10	ORD 07:47	14%	5%	1.3%	86%
AA 3400 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ALB 07:07	ORD 08:37	18%	6%	3.0%	89%
UA 1215 United	ALB 09:47	ORD 11:06	19%	8%	1.3%	no record
OO 6233 SkyWest	ALB 12:14	ORD 13:46	27%	16%	2.3%	no record
UA 463 United	ALB 12:37	ORD 13:54	28%	12%	1.3%	no record
AA 4240 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ALB 18:35	ORD 19:56	34%	15%	3.4%	79%worse than usual
UA 538 United Flight history →	ALB 17:00	ORD 18:26	36%	18%	1.5%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON