tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: American via DFW, leaving 04:59, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Austin on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → AMA 04:59 → DFW 06:29AA 4257 · flown by Envoy 2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:48 → AUS 09:59AA 794 5h 00m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → AMA 09:00 → IAH 10:52UA 4224 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 31m Houston IAH 14:23 → AUS 15:30UA 2483 6h 30m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → AMA 07:26 → DFW 08:49AA 4258 · flown by Envoy 2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:49 → AUS 11:50AA 1070 4h 24m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → AMA 15:18 → IAH 17:10UA 4816 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 08m Houston IAH 20:18 → AUS 21:25UA 2621 6h 07m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → AMA 08:00 → DEN 08:41UA 5221 · flown by SkyWest 1h 24m Denver DEN 10:05 → AUS 13:20UA 1026 5h 20m 91% 79%
AmericanDetails → AMA 10:28 → DFW 11:49AA 3920 · flown by Envoy 4h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:49 → AUS 17:00AA 1146 6h 32m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → AMA 17:20 → DEN 18:06UA 4743 · flown by SkyWest 2h 21m Denver DEN 20:27 → AUS 23:44UA 1943 6h 24m 94% 78%
AmericanDetails → AMA 14:54 → DFW 16:20AA 3383 · flown by Envoy 1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:24 → AUS 18:32AA 3722 · flown by Envoy 3h 38m 88% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON