Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 5221 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AMA 08:00	DEN 08:41	7%	3%	0.5%	88%
UA 4743 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AMA 17:20	DEN 18:06	11%	5%	0.6%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Amarillo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	AMA 04:59 → DFW 06:29AA 4257 · flown by Envoy	2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:35 → DEN 09:42AA 1756	5h 43m	99%	85%
United Details →	AMA 09:00 → IAH 10:52UA 4224 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 41m Houston	IAH 12:33 → DEN 14:17UA 2168	6h 17m	96%	85%
American Details →	AMA 07:26 → DFW 08:49AA 4258 · flown by Envoy	1h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:41 → DEN 11:46AA 2359	5h 20m	100%	84%
United Details →	AMA 15:18 → IAH 17:10UA 4816 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 17m Houston	IAH 20:27 → DEN 21:46UA 685	7h 28m	98%	82%
American Details →	AMA 10:28 → DFW 11:49AA 3920 · flown by Envoy	1h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:17 → DEN 14:21AA 420	4h 53m	98%	78%
American Details →	AMA 17:29 → DFW 18:41AA 3613 · flown by Envoy	1h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:29 → DEN 21:32AA 577	5h 03m	95%	71%
American Details →	AMA 14:54 → DFW 16:20AA 3383 · flown by Envoy	2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:30 → DEN 19:41AA 2235	5h 47m	96%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON