Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 4257 at 04:59 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 4257 AMA 04:59 → DFW 06:29 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 9786 AMA 15:00 → DFW 16:30 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4257 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 04:59	DFW 06:29	6%	5%	1.2%	94%
AA 4258 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 07:26	DFW 08:49	7%	4%	1.1%	89%
AA 3198 American	AMA 05:56	DFW 07:16	9%	7%	1.8%	no record
AA 3920 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 10:28	DFW 11:49	9%	4%	1.0%	90%
AA 3789 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 21:22	DFW 22:44	11%	5%	1.5%	70%
MQ 3337 Envoy	AMA 12:49	DFW 14:08	12%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 3383 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 14:54	DFW 16:20	14%	4%	1.1%	84%
AA 3613 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 17:29	DFW 18:41	21%	7%	1.4%	68%
AA 9786 American	AMA 15:00	DFW 16:30	22%	9%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON