Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day


UA 4224 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	AMA 09:00	IAH 10:52	9%	4%	0.6%	91%
UA 4816 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	AMA 15:18	IAH 17:10	15%	8%	0.5%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	AMA 04:59 → DFW 06:29AA 4257 · flown by Envoy	3h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:11 → IAH 11:26AA 3829 · flown by Envoy	6h 27m	100%	90%
United Details →	AMA 08:00 → DEN 08:41UA 5221 · flown by SkyWest	2h 53m Denver	DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599	7h 09m	98%	86%
American Details →	AMA 07:26 → DFW 08:49AA 4258 · flown by Envoy	3h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:07 → IAH 13:28AA 1397	6h 02m	100%	84%
American Details →	AMA 14:54 → DFW 16:20AA 3383 · flown by Envoy	1h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:03 → IAH 19:24AA 1386	4h 30m	96%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON