tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 2786 at 15:40, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2786 Southwest AMA 15:40 LAS 15:53 7% 3% 0.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Amarillo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → AMA 04:59 → DFW 06:29AA 4257 · flown by Envoy 2h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:54 → LAS 09:53AA 1550 6h 54m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → AMA 08:00 → DEN 08:41UA 5221 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 6h 24m 97% 89%
AmericanDetails → AMA 07:26 → DFW 08:49AA 4258 · flown by Envoy 1h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:42 → LAS 11:43AA 1482 6h 17m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → AMA 09:08 → IAH 11:02UA 4224 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 18m Houston IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971 8h 29m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → AMA 17:20 → DEN 18:06UA 4743 · flown by SkyWest 2h 45m Denver DEN 20:51 → LAS 21:46UA 624 6h 26m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → AMA 15:28 → IAH 17:23UA 4816 · flown by CommuteAir 2h 39m Houston IAH 20:02 → LAS 21:07UA 1360 7h 39m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → AMA 10:28 → DFW 11:49AA 3920 · flown by Envoy 3h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:20 → LAS 16:24AA 1573 7h 56m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → AMA 17:29 → DFW 18:41AA 3613 · flown by Envoy 2h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:29 → LAS 22:29AA 2371 7h 00m 98% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON