Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 00:13, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time.

Nonstops that day


AA 399 American Flight history →	ANC 20:07	DFW 05:30	18%	4%	0.6%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 3 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ANC 00:13 → DEN 07:11UA 1959	2h 28m Denver	DEN 09:39 → DFW 12:43UA 1350	9h 30m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	3h 13m Seattle	SEA 09:15 → DFW 15:13DL 803	10h 43m	99%	80%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	1h 17m Seattle	SEA 07:45 → DFW 13:49AS 340	8h 52m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	ANC 11:42 → SEA 16:20DL 2768	1h 35m Seattle	SEA 17:55 → DFW 23:55DL 870	9h 13m	92%	76%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:10 → SEA 10:32AS 268	3h 16m Seattle	SEA 13:48 → DFW 19:38AS 485	10h 28m	100%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON