Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 00:13, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Detroit on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 4 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ANC 00:13 → DEN 07:11UA 1959	2h 24m Denver	DEN 09:35 → DTW 14:27UA 1915	10h 14m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	ANC 02:00 → SEA 06:23DL 925	3h 22m Seattle	SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324	11h 04m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → MSP 14:18DL 447	1h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 15:51 → DTW 18:37DL 1476	8h 37m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:39 → SEA 11:02DL 853	3h 57m Seattle	SEA 14:59 → DTW 22:10DL 533	11h 31m	98%	85%
Alaska Details →	ANC 02:20 → SEA 06:42AS 98	2h 36m Seattle	SEA 09:18 → DTW 16:33AS 313	10h 13m	99%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON