Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 513 ANC 08:01 → FAI 09:11 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest QX 2060 ANC 13:07 → FAI 14:23 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 513 Alaska	ANC 08:01	FAI 09:11	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
AS 226 Alaska	ANC 10:05	FAI 11:15	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
AS 81 Alaska	ANC 19:37	FAI 20:47	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
QX 2058 Horizon	ANC 16:35	FAI 17:51	12%	3%	2.3%	no record
QX 2082 Horizon	ANC 20:18	FAI 21:34	14%	3%	2.7%	no record
QX 2060 Horizon	ANC 13:07	FAI 14:23	14%	3%	3.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON