Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Seattle, leaving 01:30, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 4 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	1h 13m Seattle	SEA 07:15 → JFK 15:49DL 429	10h 19m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	ANC 14:12 → SEA 18:46DL 922	3h 54m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → JFK 06:50 +1DL 452	12h 38m	99%	85%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	2h 59m Seattle	SEA 09:27 → JFK 17:27AS 26	11h 30m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853	54m Seattle	SEA 11:34 → JFK 20:15DL 415	10h 15m	92%	75%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:10 → SEA 10:32AS 268	2h 55m Seattle	SEA 13:27 → JFK 21:26AS 34	11h 16m	100%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON