Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 00:13, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ANC 00:13 → DEN 07:11UA 1959	2h 33m Denver	DEN 09:44 → LAS 10:48UA 1767	9h 35m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	1h 23m Seattle	SEA 07:25 → LAS 10:01DL 2922	7h 31m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	ANC 14:12 → SEA 18:46DL 922	1h 48m Seattle	SEA 20:34 → LAS 23:10DL 2949	7h 58m	96%	85%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	1h 39m Seattle	SEA 08:07 → LAS 10:29AS 1363	7h 32m	97%	72%
Alaska Details →	ANC 07:03 → SEA 11:24AS 48	3h 34m Seattle	SEA 14:58 → LAS 17:21AS 678	9h 18m	100%	69%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:10 → SEA 10:32AS 268	59m Seattle	SEA 11:31 → LAS 14:16AS 738	7h 06m	85%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON