tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 00:13, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ANC 00:13 → DEN 07:11UA 1959 2h 51m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 10h 21m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853 1h 55m Seattle SEA 12:35 → LAX 15:23DL 2914 8h 23m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → ANC 14:12 → SEA 18:46DL 922 2h 50m Seattle SEA 21:36 → LAX 00:13 +1DL 2512 9h 01m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925 1h 13m Seattle SEA 07:15 → LAX 10:05DL 1628 7h 35m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → ANC 11:42 → SEA 16:20DL 2768 1h 10m Seattle SEA 17:30 → LAX 20:13DL 2861 7h 31m 92% 77%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 09:03 → SEA 13:23AS 221 3h 47m Seattle SEA 17:10 → LAX 19:55AS 492 9h 52m 100% 76%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 06:10 → SEA 10:32AS 268 3h 06m Seattle SEA 13:38 → LAX 16:25AS 696 9h 15m 100% 72%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98 3h 27m Seattle SEA 09:55 → LAX 12:23AS 1306 9h 26m 100% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON