tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 00:13, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ANC 00:13 → DEN 07:11UA 1959 2h 42m Denver DEN 09:53 → PHX 10:56UA 1782 9h 43m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925 2h 23m Seattle SEA 08:25 → PHX 11:20DL 2419 8h 50m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853 2h 50m Seattle SEA 13:30 → PHX 16:41DL 2442 9h 41m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → ANC 14:12 → SEA 18:46DL 922 1h 44m Seattle SEA 20:30 → PHX 23:33DL 2447 8h 21m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → ANC 11:42 → SEA 16:20DL 2768 2h 10m Seattle SEA 18:30 → PHX 21:29DL 2698 8h 47m 93% 78%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 09:03 → SEA 13:23AS 221 3h 23m Seattle SEA 16:46 → PHX 19:34AS 746 9h 31m 100% 71%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 07:03 → SEA 11:24AS 48 3h 25m Seattle SEA 14:49 → PHX 17:37AS 744 9h 34m 100% 71%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 06:10 → SEA 10:32AS 268 3h 12m Seattle SEA 13:44 → PHX 16:45AS 700 9h 35m 100% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON