Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 925 at 01:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 925 ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 1338 ANC 14:40 → SEA 19:02 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 925 Delta Flight history →	ANC 01:30	SEA 06:02	5%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 853 Delta Flight history →	ANC 06:00	SEA 10:40	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
AS 98 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 01:57	SEA 06:28	8%	1%	0.7%	88%
DL 922 Delta Flight history →	ANC 14:12	SEA 18:46	9%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 833 Delta	ANC 07:58	SEA 12:23	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2768 Delta Flight history →	ANC 11:42	SEA 16:20	9%	1%	0.6%	95%
AS 532 Alaska	ANC 01:54	SEA 06:14	10%	1%	0.6%	no record
AS 1380 Alaska	ANC 01:23	SEA 05:44	10%	1%	0.6%	no record
AS 1439 Alaska	ANC 00:27	SEA 04:45	12%	1%	0.7%	no record
AS 48 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 07:03	SEA 11:24	13%	1%	0.7%	88%
AS 268 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 06:10	SEA 10:32	14%	2%	0.7%	86%
AS 221 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 09:03	SEA 13:23	15%	2%	0.7%	98%worse than usual
AS 1460 Alaska	ANC 09:53	SEA 14:14	17%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 1474 Alaska	ANC 10:20	SEA 14:41	18%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1462 Alaska	ANC 08:00	SEA 12:20	19%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1338 Alaska	ANC 14:40	SEA 19:02	20%	2%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON