tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 00:13, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ANC 00:13 → DEN 07:11UA 1959 2h 32m Denver DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506 10h 12m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → ANC 14:39 → SEA 19:00DL 922 2h 39m Seattle SEA 21:39 → SFO 23:59DL 2635 8h 20m 97% 85%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 01:34 → PDX 06:14AS 593 1h 05m Portland PDX 07:19 → SFO 09:16AS 526 6h 42m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853 3h 50m Seattle SEA 14:30 → SFO 16:49DL 3707 · flown by SkyWest 9h 49m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → ANC 06:00 → MSP 14:18DL 447 49m Minneapolis MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756 10h 12m 84% 75%
DeltaDetails → ANC 02:00 → SEA 06:22DL 925 56m Seattle SEA 07:18 → SFO 09:23DL 1134 6h 23m 89% 74%
DeltaDetails → ANC 11:42 → SEA 16:20DL 2768 1h 30m Seattle SEA 17:50 → SFO 20:16DL 3991 · flown by SkyWest 7h 34m 91% 70%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 02:20 → SEA 06:47AS 98 2h 06m Seattle SEA 08:53 → SFO 11:09AS 528 7h 49m 99% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON