tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 08:46, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Austin on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h ahead of Aspen). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ASE 08:46 → DEN 10:06UA 4647 · flown by SkyWest 3h 38m Denver DEN 13:44 → AUS 16:58UA 2270 7h 12m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48UA 5766 · flown by SkyWest 1h 17m Denver DEN 10:05 → AUS 13:20UA 1026 4h 50m 95% 85%
UnitedDetails → ASE 11:32 → DEN 12:45UA 5772 · flown by SkyWest 2h 50m Denver DEN 15:35 → AUS 18:48UA 1899 6h 16m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → ASE 07:25 → DFW 10:36AA 4898 · flown by SkyWest 1h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:30 → AUS 13:41AA 1852 5h 16m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → ASE 15:25 → DEN 16:38UA 5776 · flown by SkyWest 3h 49m Denver DEN 20:27 → AUS 23:44UA 1943 7h 19m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → ASE 13:22 → IAH 17:21UA 5702 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Houston IAH 20:18 → AUS 21:25UA 2621 7h 03m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → ASE 12:03 → LAX 13:24DL 4133 · flown by SkyWest 2h 31m Los Angeles LAX 15:55 → AUS 20:58DL 622 7h 55m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → ASE 08:16 → LAX 09:38UA 5851 · flown by SkyWest 1h 14m Los Angeles LAX 10:52 → AUS 16:03UA 1496 6h 47m 93% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON