Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 8–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5766 ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 5776 ASE 15:25 → DEN 16:38 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5766 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 07:30	DEN 08:48	8%	4%	1.6%	89%
UA 4647 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 08:46	DEN 10:06	11%	3%	1.6%	89%
UA 5772 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 11:32	DEN 12:45	13%	4%	1.6%	77%
UA 5774 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 13:07	DEN 14:20	13%	5%	1.6%	76%
OO 5589 SkyWest	ASE 14:56	DEN 16:00	14%	4%	1.6%	no record
UA 5778 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 17:10	DEN 18:23	15%	4%	1.3%	73%
UA 5770 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 09:07	DEN 10:12	15%	4%	1.6%	83%
UA 5776 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 15:25	DEN 16:38	17%	5%	1.2%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON