Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, UA 5702 at 13:22, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5702 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 13:22	IAH 17:21	12%	8%	1.7%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h ahead of Aspen). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ASE 08:46 → DEN 10:06UA 4647 · flown by SkyWest	3h 24m Denver	DEN 13:30 → IAH 17:04UA 1829	7h 18m	100%	81%
United Details →	ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48UA 5766 · flown by SkyWest	2h 46m Denver	DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599	6h 39m	98%	80%
United Details →	ASE 15:25 → DEN 16:38UA 5776 · flown by SkyWest	3h 50m Denver	DEN 20:28 → IAH 23:59UA 2419	7h 34m	97%	80%
United Details →	ASE 08:16 → LAX 09:38UA 5851 · flown by SkyWest	3h 31m Los Angeles	LAX 13:09 → IAH 18:39UA 1084	9h 23m	98%	79%
United Details →	ASE 11:32 → DEN 12:45UA 5772 · flown by SkyWest	2h 50m Denver	DEN 15:35 → IAH 19:10UA 489	6h 38m	96%	77%
United Details →	ASE 13:07 → DEN 14:20UA 5774 · flown by SkyWest	3h 42m Denver	DEN 18:02 → IAH 21:21UA 1055	7h 14m	97%	76%
American Details →	ASE 07:25 → DFW 10:36AA 4898 · flown by SkyWest	1h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:07 → IAH 13:28AA 1397	5h 03m	96%	75%
United Details →	ASE 09:55 → SFO 11:43UA 4657 · flown by SkyWest	2h 46m San Francisco	SFO 14:29 → IAH 20:22UA 2831	9h 27m	97%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON